NAFSA fears US$7 billion loss for US HE from policy impact

The projections by NAFSA in collaboration with JB International are that recent government actions such as travel bans, a three-week pause on new student visa interviews and disruptions to processing will lead to a significant decrease in new students for the 2025/26 academic year, and a 15 per cent decline in overall international student enrolment.

NAFSA said that F-1 visa issuance in the January to April 2025 period was down by 12 per cent compared with the same period of the previous year, while May 2025 was down by 22 per cent compared with May 2024. The organization is anticipating a more significant decrease in June due to the pause on new appointments for much of that month.

The association warned that without significant recovery in visa issuance during July and August, the decrease in new students arriving for the fall could be even more severe than the projections above.

Source – NAFSA

“This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall,” said Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA.

“The immediate economic losses projected here are just the tip of the iceberg. International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations. For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”

In the 2023/24 academic year, there were 1,126,690 international students enrolled at higher education institutions in the USA, making an economic contribution of US$43.8 billion.

NAFSA is projecting an increase in the current 2024/25 academic year to 1,185,841 international students and a US$46.1 billion contribution, but projects that in the forthcoming 2025/26 academic year, total enrolment will decline to 1,007,965 and economic contribution will decline to US$39.2 billion.

In its report, NAFSA said that factors driving the decrease include interviews being paused for three weeks during the peak issuance season and then resumed with new social media vetting protocols, which it said was “a vague and unnecessary administrative burden” that impacts on a system that already faced delays.

The organization said that there were reports of limited or no appointments available at consulates in India and China – the two largest source markets for higher education institutions in the USA – as well as other major sending markets such as Nigeria and Japan.

The travel ban on 19 countries, announced in a Presidential proclamation by President Trump on June 4th, has also impacted on enrolments, NAFSA said. Among the banned counties, Iran is a top 20 source country.

Echoing the recent letter to the State Department by the U.S. for Success Coalition, representing organizations across the sector, NAFSA called for expedited visa appointments and processing for F-1, M-1 and J-1 visa applicants.

NAFSA is projecting a US$7 billion loss from a decrease in students.

It also called for those visa categories to be exempted from the travel ban on 19 countries.