US universities anticipate decline in students in 2025/26

The Spring 2025 Snapshot by the Institute of International Education (IIE) is based on the responses of 559 higher education institutions, which collectively represented 53 per cent of international students hosted in 2023/24.

Applications: The survey revealed mixed trends in terms of international student applications for the forthcoming 2025/26 academic year. Thirty-five per cent of institutions said that applications have decreased, 32 per cent said applications have risen, and 32 per cent said levels have stayed the same.

The proportion of institutions indicating a decrease in applications was higher than the 17 per cent recorded in the previous Spring Snapshot, and was the largest since 2021/22, when institutions were grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic.

International student applications in the IIE Spring Snapshot over the last six years. Source – IIE.

Pakistan was the major source market with the most potential for the 2025/26 academic year as 84 per cent of institutions indicated an increase in applications, followed by Bangladesh (80), the UK and Ghana (both 79).

However, India and China – comfortably the two largest source countries for higher education institutions in the USA – had notably lower rates at 59 per cent and 58 per cent respectively.

2025/26 enrolments: For the 2025/26 academic year, 49 per cent of institutions that responded expect a decrease in graduate-level enrolments, 40 per cent anticipate a decline in undergraduate enrolments, and 38 per cent believe that non-degree enrolments will fall.

Among the institutions that are expecting declines, 87 per cent cited visa application barriers as a contributing factor, although IIE highlighted that this is traditionally the top factor cited in the survey. However, 77 per cent of respondents noted an increase in questions from current and prospective students about the current US political climate.

Other issues highlighted included students deciding to enrol in another country (71 per cent), potential problems at the US port of entry (69), and concerns about visa status while in the USA (68).

During the recent months, the sector has faced a wave of revocations of students visas, a pause in student visa interviews, the introduction of new guidelines of vetting student visa applicants’ social media profiles, threats to the OPT scheme, a renewed travel ban on 19 countries, and the government’s ongoing battle with Harvard University.

In the 2023/24 academic year, a record 1,126,690 international students were enrolled at colleges and universities in the USA, driven by growth in postgraduate enrolments, participation in the Optional Practical Training (OPT) post-study work scheme, and a large increase in Indian students, according to IIE’s Open Doors report.

Expected enrolments for 2025/26. Source – IIE

International student recruitment activity: International student recruitment was cited as a high priority for a third (33 per cent) of the institutions surveyed, a moderate priority for a further 41 per cent, a low priority by 15 per cent, and not a priority at all for the remainder.

The variety of perspectives that international students bring to campus was indicated as a motive for enrolling more international students by 88 per cent of institutions, while 61 per cent cited the financial contributions that they bring to campuses and communities.

“Some institutions noted working more closely with educational agencies, hiring consulting firms, pivoting to different regions for recruitment, creating partnership programs, exploring ways to increase online offerings, and leveraging AI tools to enhance their operations. Together, these actions reflect a forward-looking commitment to sustaining and strengthening international engagement,” the authors said.

Institutions are also leveraging current international students as a strategy in international student recruitment, while 62 per cent utilised at least one service offered by EducationUSA. Students already in the USA, including those at high schools and community colleges, are also a growing source of recruitment for higher education institutions, IIE said.

Services offered to students: Institutions indicated which services and supports are provided for international students, and 92 per cent offered advising sessions and guidance on maintaining visa status.

Referrals to mental health services (65), assisting students not planning to return home for summer (60), cautions not to travel (53) and referrals to legal counsel (44) were other common supports.

Outbound study abroad: In terms of outbound study abroad, 86 per cent of colleges and universities expect increased or stable participation in study abroad programs in the 2025/26 academic year.

Europe remains the primary destination with 80 per cent of institutions offering courses in the top three destinations of Italy, Spain and the UK, although institutions cited more mid-length offerings in Asia and Oceania and an increase in summer programs in Latin America and the Caribbean.